Saturday, September 08, 2012

After The Convention, 538 Says ...

  By  blue aardvark             Original

Predicted EC Vote: Obama 313.0, Romney 225.0.
Chance of victory: Obama 77.3%
Predicted popular vote: 51.3% to 47.6% (that leaves 1.1% for "other")
Chance of Obama landslide: 9.6%. A landslide is defined as popular vote margin > 10%

Predicted chance of Obama victory in tipping point states.


Tipping point states are those most likely to supply the 270th EC vote, so it is a weighted average of "closeness" + "votes".

If you want to know the states most likely to switch from Romney to Obama, they are:
North Carolina: 40.1% chance of Obama win
Missouri: 15.3% chance of Obama win
Arizona: 12.9% chance of Obama win
Montana: 12.9% chance of Obama win
Indiana: 11.0% chance of Obama win

If you see Team Romney spending money in Missouri and Arizona and Montana, that is a "pending landslide" indicator