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Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Obama Gaining On Clinton

   In case you haven't heard, as of Monday, Barack Obama is pretty much wrapping the Democratic Party Presidential nomination up. Here are the latest numbers from a Associated Press-Ipsos poll.

The Illinois senator leads Clinton by 23 percentage points among white men and by 17 points among liberals — groups that were evenly divided between the two in early February. He has a similar advantage among people earning $50,000 to $100,000 annually — whom she led earlier by 13 points.

Clinton maintains robust leads among some groups that have been cornerstones of her candidacy, including those age 65 and up, white women and people earning under $50,000 annually.

Overall, Obama has 46 percent to Clinton's 43 percent, a virtual tie. Clinton had a slight 5 point lead nationally in early February.

Obama's advances among voting groups are even more stark when viewed longer term.

In mid-January — when primaries and caucuses were just beginning — Clinton had a 7-point lead among all men, a group she now trails by 25 points. The two were about even among college graduates, whom Obama now leads by 20 points.

   So how do these two match up against John McCain right now?

In matchups looking ahead to November's general election, Clinton leads Arizona Sen. John McCain by 48 percent to 43 percent. Obama's lead over the virtually certain GOP nominee is twice that size, 51 percent to 41 percent.

Obama does better than Clinton does against McCain among better educated, moderate and middle-class voters, winning among those groups while Clinton would split them with the Republican. Obama trails among the oldest voters while Clinton and McCain divide them evenly.

The two Democrats do about equally against McCain among several groups that lean toward Clinton, leading him by similar margins among women, the least educated and lowest-income voters. McCain is ahead against both Democrats among whites, while they lead him easily among minorities.

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