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Monday, January 20, 2014

Welfare: Good for the Economy

  With all of the bullshit coming from the Republican side of the isle about how food stamps and unemployment checks make people ‘ lazy,’ I’d thought that I would post an article about how these government programs are good for our economy.

   This article comes from liberaldad2.

The Republicans are demanding that the government cut back spending on social welfare programs like unemployment insurance, food stamps, aid to poor families and other welfare programs.  I have always believed that a wealthy nation has an obligation to care for its least fortunate members on ethical and moral grounds, but clearly we have a disagreement with our more conservative brethren on that issue.  However, there is a purely economic argument that shows investing in our poorest individuals will pay benefits for the American economy, including America’s businesses.  Here is how it works – Economics 101.

If the government gives one dollar to a poor individual, he is going to spend it.  Maybe not all of it, but some fraction, let’s say 90 percent (10 percent goes into a savings account or some other investment).  Maybe on food or clothing or a vacation trip to Las Vegas, maybe on alcohol or drugs – from an economics perspective, it doesn’t matter.  Then the recipients of the 90 cents will also have more money to spend.  They in turn will spend 81 cents of that money in much the same way, injecting even more money into the economy.  Some fraction will go into labor and goods from their suppliers to meet the increased demand, and some will be discretionary for personal luxury items.  Then 72 cents of that 81 cents will also get respent, and so on, over and over again.

And let’s not forget taxes.  When the first recipient spends his 90 cents, he will pay sales tax.  And the recipient will pay income tax on the extra profit he makes.  That means that a substantial fraction of the one dollar that was originally spent by the government will come back in additional taxes.  Of course taxes will reduce the amount available for discretionary spending, but that can be easily accounted for.

This is called the multiplier effect.  Let’s assume that everyone in the supply chain would spend 90 percent of the money they receive and save the other 10 percent, and we also assume that the sales tax rate is 8 percent, that gross income generates taxable profit at an average of 5 percent, and that the marginal income tax rate is 28 percent.  Then the numbers show that for the $1 in government spending, $4.87 is injected into the economy, $0.54 goes into savings and tax revenues increase by $0.46.

Take a good look at those numbers.  Remarkably, the one dollar gets multiplied, increasing spending across the entire economy, mostly going directly into the private sector.  Plus the banks see a significant increase in investments, and the government gets almost half of its money back.  Note that the sum of the money saved and the money returned in taxes equals the entire original investment.  This has to be true, because the money keeps getting passed on.  In fact, if the savings rate is lower, say 5 percent instead of 10, then the multiplier is even larger.  Money injected goes to $6.82, savings drops to $0.36 and taxes increase to $0.64.  Again the sum of the savings and taxes equals the original investment.  No, this is not voodoo economics, a healthy economy really works that way.  This is how wealth is created.  Not to mention jobs.

Conversely, when the government cuts those programs and doesn’t put that money into people's hands, the same multiplier effect punishes the economy many times over.

Ironically, and sadly, the poorest people in the supply chain save the least (that's why they are poor).  If you give the same dollar to a billionaire (for example, by reducing his taxes), he won't spend much of it - it will mostly go into savings - so the multiplier gets reduced.  Giving the money to the poorest, who are most likely to go out and spend it, actually generates the greatest amount of wealth.

Of course the government has to raise the $1.00 in the first place, either through taxes or borrowing, and therein lies another tale.  But based on this example, the government really only needs to raise $0.54 (or $0.36, depending on the savings rate) in order to spend that $1.00.  There will of course be a redistribution from federal to state and local revenues, but state and local welfare programs also inject money back into federal taxes, so there is some balance.  This seems like a bargain to me.

So this looks like a no brainer – government spending on social welfare programs directly benefits businesses and banks in the private sector with a big multiplier – how could anyone who favors business object to that?  Every time a social welfare program gets cut, American businesses get another kick in the teeth because their customers have less money to spend.  And that is not voodoo, that is real.

Originally posted to liberaldad2 on Fri Jan 17, 2014

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Health Insurers: Whining About Socialism All The Way to the Bank

By cskendrick on January 7,2013

Not one of the major publicly-traded health insurers' stocks underperforms the S&P500 market index and hasn't since summer 2009 when we all started this very interesting conversation about how Obamacare would destroy private insurance.

The insurers are whining about how socialism is killing them all the way to the bank. Aetna, perhaps the most publicly opposed to the ACA based on its close association with one Joe Lieberman (h/t NYCeve),  bought Coventry Health in a bold move to expose itself even more to socialism. HCA went public again in 2010 an odd play for a corporation fearing market exposure in the aftermath of PASSAGE of the Affordable Care Act.  (In another bold risk management move, HCS fobbed off former chair Rick Scott onto the state of Florida.)

So that means not only the voters, not only common decency but ruthless pursuit of returns isn't on the side of 'repeal and replace'. My theory on why: Once ACA is in place, companies will no longer have to manage in-house health packages for employees. The large companies, exempt in theory from Obamacare, will voluntarily phase out their benefits on the premise that, like in every other developed country on Earth, health insurance is a conversation between the people and their public servants.

(more below the squiggleract.)

We're an increasingly multinational corporate world. Big multinationals don't like coming to America and finding out they have to pay expensive health care packages for employees that they don't have to pay for anywhere else. It won't happen fast, but it will happen faster than the 30 years it took American workers to lose their defined benefit pensions.

Now, with pensions, this was something Republicans couldn't get enough of back in the day, because it started up when 'the day' and all future ones were quite bright and rosy in GOPers' eye. The golden age of the Reagan Empire. We wear de-risking now. De-risking is cool. Which makes it all the more amusing that now it's happening under Obama's watch the same thing is evil. For how it was Cool When Republicans Did It But Socialism Now, Michael Baroneone only has to peek at the prose of Michael Barone on the topic.

Perhaps this isn't the health care world as it should be in anyone's eyes. Liberals object to setting up a system that compensates institutions and individuals that will
never stop contributing to a party that wants to deconstruct the public space. Tactically speaking, centrists/pragmatists/whatever the most awesome label is this week might want to revisit the merits as well. (And thanks for the cash in the meantime, Democrats, while we continue to hate you lots and plot your complete destruction. Love, the insurance industry.)

On the other side of the aisle I am quite sure Republicans don't like government assuming the risk, ever, and they've long since moved on to hating on the miniscule tax increases to passive investor income (a dip in after tax returns that is more than made up for by the reduced volatility in those reduced, because less risk AND over time the reduced long term liabilities to private corporations who will now be off the hook for health packages for their staff.) But... taxes. But... socialism. But... Obama gets credit if this works (but not from us). But... Duck Dynasty Sarah Palin something.

Thing is, the cray-cray crew don't have any strategy but stamping their feet and (see: October shutdown) threatening to tall OUR ball and going home. Not because of triumph of liberalism. Not because Tea People are suddenly feeling, okay, yeah, my kids have health issues and I am diabetic and my work health plan is getting ridiculously expensive and this website's not ALL that bad so I'm enrolling.

ACA is going to work because it makes a lot of already rich people and corporations even richer. Companies getting to dump trillions more of long term liabilities as they volunteer their associates into Obamacare (because freedom) is why no one's coming to the rescue of the 'Repeal and Replace' set, any more than anyone came to the rescue of first private workers' then public servants' pensions since the 1980s.

ACA is better than no ACA by far: We're not replacing socialized medicine with ACA, so this isn't quite the same as swapping out pensions with 401Ks. (So, perhaps there's a point for Barone there...if one accepts that Doing More For The American Worker Is Always Bad And Really Bad If It Makes Democrats Look Good). This is something new...and the irony is that corporations (same as with the 401K conquest of private retirement funding) are liking what they're seeing....even if they have no intention by and large of funding Democrats. (They'd rather just have less crazy Republicans, good luck with that Corporate America. Keep us posted.)

So in a nutshell: Giving the risk and expense of keeping you, the working stiff, healthy and alive back to you (with a little help from your government) is what ACA is all about. Oh, and it makes some serious coin for insurers in the meantime (see: Stock performance since 2009).

For that reason - it makes some serious loot for people who don't necessarily have a problem with socialism, only sharing it with the little people - ACA is here to stay, because it takes a LOT of risk off Corporate America's books in the long run and saves shareholders trillions, perhaps many trillions, in the bargain.

If fewer people get sick and die and bankrupt their families in the process, that's nice, but the insurers who are doing so well financially, because socialism, won't ever thank Democrats for the solid.

They'll continue whining all the way to the bank...and that, ironically, is why ACA's here to stay.

Crossposted at Daily Kos