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Le Point, France
Difficulties of the Republican Party Candidacies
By Antoine Grenapin 13 December 2011
Translated By Cynthia Perez
Edited by Gillian Palmer
France - Le Point - Original Article (French)
There are still eight of them in the race. With less than a month before the first primary elections, taking place in Iowa and New Hampshire, it is impossible to distinguish a favorite among the Republican candidates.
“It is the first time since the post-war period in which no candidate really stands out,” analyzes Vincent Michelot. Professor at the Political Science Institute of Lyon (France) specializing in the United States, he is the author of several works on American political life, including Le président des Etats-Unis: Un pouvoir imperial? [The president of the United States, an imperial power?] (Gallimard, 2008). Here, he passionately delivers a list of six reasons for all the suspense, a plunge into the heart of American politics.
1. There has been total redefinition of the conservative movement.
“Nixon, Reagan and Bush Jr. each gave a definition to conservatism in their time. Today, this movement, paralyzed by contradictions, staggers mostly along three major lines of division.
“First, when it comes to questions of morality, there is a distinction between ‘social’ values, which aim to defend the integrity of the family, and those of libertarians.
Concerning foreign politics, there are two clashing camps: One favors a projection of American power while the other is more of an advocate for withdrawal, that is, isolationism with the use of force only under direct threat.
“Lastly, in economic matters, there is a divide among those who'll accept a rise in taxes and those who'd prefer to lower taxes, dig the country deeper into debt and effectively ‘starve the beast.’”
2. Voters are much more right-wing than in general elections.
It is a recurring observation during each Republican primary. The candidate must unite the hard right in order to win its vote before broadening its campaign to more moderate voters. But with the emergence of the tea party movement this year, the phenomenon is even more visible.
The paradox is that this essentially populist movement flatly refuses to be represented. They want nothing to do with politicians, though certain candidates, like Michele Bachmann or Sarah Palin, have, without much success, claimed to be their voice.
3. There is a desire for renewal.
It's Mitt Romney who, in spite of the lagging polls, seems to be in the best position for getting the nomination (at 20.8 percent in the polls, following Newt Gingrich with 33.3 percent). But besides being a Mormon (which doesn't delight fundamentalists), he is a part of the Establishment.
The Republican electorate, and Americans as a whole, aspire to a renewal of the political community. They want to see new faces come onto the scene. This is most evident when we look at the approval rating of a mostly Republican Congress: Only 9 percent of Americans have a favorable image of it, an historic low.
4. The Republican Party has not made a decision.
Paradoxically, if the Establishment suffers from its image, it maintains a significant influence in the campaign. Its most important elected officials carry a lot of weight right from the beginning of the campaign. By openly supporting a candidate, it sets the course. Generally speaking, its support goes to the candidate who stands out among the others.
So far, however, no candidate has been exceptional. This explains why none of them have or can receive the party's support at present; each of their weaknesses and quirks can be blamed for this.
5. The eight candidates have many flaws.
A poll leader for a while, Herman Cain has suffered from what is called “bimbo eruption” in the United States. A series of women did in fact accuse the only black candidate of sexual harassment which in the end forced him to give up the race.
As for the current favorite, Newt Gingrich, the eldest candidate (68) in the primary, there is a wide rift between what he says and his private life. He preaches a return to family values and moral conservatism; all the while he is on his third marriage. And each time he began a new relationship, his previous one hadn't been ended.
6. The importance of foreign policy.
The blunders of Michele Bachmann (wanting to close the embassy in Tehran...which has been closed since 1979) and of Newt Gingrich (qualifying the Palestinians as an "invented people"), as well as the once favorite Rick Perry's hesitations on questions over foreign policy, have all helped to weaken certain candidates.
It should not be forgotten that in this field, voters always have qualms about voting for candidates who unsure on this issue because they know they are not only electing the next president but also the commander in chief.
For the moment, only two of the candidates, Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman, are qualified in the matter. But it's just the beginning the primary election process; the more it advances, the more the candidates will be surrounded by advisers and refine their speech. An election only depends on foreign policy during times of war. But blunders will still ban you from becoming the ideal candidate.
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